V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.40%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
17.63%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
18.34%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8150 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1034 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 71.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1226 | -5.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.1948 | 5.74*** |
| γ3 | -0.1339 | -4.41*** |
| γ4 | 0.1077 | 3.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0530 | -2.24** |
| γ6 | 0.0031 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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