V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.86%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
18.05%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
18.66%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8320 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 9.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 71.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1202 | -5.68*** |
| γ2 | 0.1916 | 5.72*** |
| γ3 | -0.1329 | -4.42*** |
| γ4 | 0.1080 | 3.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.0543 | -2.29** |
| γ6 | 0.0044 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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