Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.43%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
11.69%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
12.54%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1305 | 8.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1219 | 10.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8532 | 67.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.96** |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1305 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1219 | 10.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 67.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
Other Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs