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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

11.63%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

11.88%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

12.69%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

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graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1298
8.27***
αARCH0.1220
10.43***
βGARCH0.8532
67.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
1.95*

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1298
8.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1220
10.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8532
67.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
1.95*

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days