V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
11.63%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
11.88%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
12.69%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1298 | 8.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.1220 | 10.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8532 | 67.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.95* |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1298 | 8.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1220 | 10.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 67.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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