V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.54%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
15.76%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
16.44%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5341 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 9.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8442 | 58.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0334 | 2.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.0510 | -2.66*** |
| γ3 | 0.0383 | 2.45** |
| γ4 | -0.0300 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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