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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.43%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

11.69%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

12.54%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1305
8.29***
αARCH0.1219
10.43***
βGARCH0.8532
67.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
1.96**

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1305
8.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1219
10.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8532
67.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
1.96**

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days