V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.21%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
11.72%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
13.02%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8339 | 48.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.2155 | 9.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0104 | 1.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0527 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9373 | 21.58*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 48.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2155 | 9.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 1.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0527 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9373 | 21.58*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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