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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.39%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

13.58%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

13.92%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8343
48.39***
γleverage0.2152
9.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0104
1.23
λ₂forecast adj.0.0526
1.43
λ₃tau persistence0.9374
21.57***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8343
48.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2152
9.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0104
1.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0526
1.43
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9374
21.57***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days