V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.33%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
13.63%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
14.39%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8342 | 187.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2139 | 33.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0107 | 7.45*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0546 | 5.80*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9351 | 88.74*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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