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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

11.88%

increased by 1.17%

1 Week

12.27%

increased by 1.56%

1 Month

13.44%

increased by 2.73%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8341
48.33***
γleverage0.2154
9.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0104
1.23
λ₂forecast adj.0.0525
1.43
λ₃tau persistence0.9375
21.64***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8341
48.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2154
9.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0104
1.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0525
1.43
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9375
21.64***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days