Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.39%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
13.58%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
13.92%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8343 | 48.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.2152 | 9.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0104 | 1.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0526 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9374 | 21.57*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8343 | 48.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2152 | 9.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 1.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0526 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9374 | 21.57*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs