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V-Lab

Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.24%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

11.91%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

13.60%

increased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8334
189.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2157
34.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0107
7.44***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0543
5.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9356
89.28***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days