V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.24%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
11.91%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
13.60%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8334 | 189.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2157 | 34.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0107 | 7.44*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0543 | 5.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9356 | 89.28*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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