V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
11.57%
increased by 1.29%
1 Month
12.54%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0248 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0008 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8893 | 73.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1760 | 5.97*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0008 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8893 | 73.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1760 | 5.97*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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