V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
10.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
10.83%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
11.98%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0249 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0010 | 0.05 |
| βGARCH | 0.8890 | 73.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.1762 | 5.94*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0249 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0010 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8890 | 73.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1762 | 5.94*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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