Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.31%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
23.92%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
22.59%
decreased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0379 | 0.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9281 | 9.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0782 | 0.29 |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0379 | 0.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9281 | 9.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0782 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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