V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
13.73%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
13.89%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
14.36%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0476 | 0.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9065 | 7.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0851 | 0.58 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0476 | 0.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9065 | 7.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0851 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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