V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.03%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
15.12%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
15.40%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0460 | 0.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9095 | 8.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0912 | 0.59 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0460 | 0.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 8.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0912 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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