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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.93%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

13.31%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

14.35%

increased by 1.25%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0521
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8983
31.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1078
2.63***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days