V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.93%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
13.31%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
14.35%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0521 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8983 | 31.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1078 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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