Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.84%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
15.09%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
15.82%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0561 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 30.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1071 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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