V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.44%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
13.78%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
14.76%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0533 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8983 | 31.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1091 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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