V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
13.99%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
14.09%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
14.38%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0416 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 2.39** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9321 | 42.36*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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