Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.12%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
15.39%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
16.17%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0595 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9033 | 32.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.10 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2845 | 4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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