Skip to main content
V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.85%

increased by 1.05%

1 Week

16.09%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

16.97%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0251
3.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
3.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9367
41.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.9522
5.70***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.97**

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days