Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.85%
increased by 1.05%
1 Week
16.09%
increased by 1.29%
1 Month
16.97%
increased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0633 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 41.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9522 | 5.70*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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