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V-Lab

Baron First Principles ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

21.10%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Week

18.88%

decreased by 3.56%

1 Month

13.85%

decreased by 8.59%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Baron First Principles ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0336
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2373
13.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7462
45.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0977
-3.43***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.94*

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days