Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
35.34%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
35.18%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
34.79%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2172 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 0.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8873 | 34.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.32 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1234 | 13.38*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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