Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
25.98%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
25.99%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
26.00%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0823 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9679 | 54.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1541 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9060 | 4.35*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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