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V-Lab

Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

24.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

24.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

24.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Hessian SE

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 690 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 100.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3054
0.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1.07
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

100.0591
0.01

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

690 days