V-Lab
Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
24.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
24.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
24.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 246 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 96.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3749 | 0.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 0.20 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 96.7905 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
246 days
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