Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil Gas Exploration & Production Index ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
27.83%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
30.62%
increased by 1.54%
1 Month
34.36%
increased by 5.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 133% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9223 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4105 | 6.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5318 | 11.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2343 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
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