V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.28%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
18.35%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
18.58%
decreased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0202 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1462 | 5.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8383 | 58.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0076 | 0.22 |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0202 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1462 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8383 | 58.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0076 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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