V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.64%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
23.59%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
23.39%
decreased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0153 | 14.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 29.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 395.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1233 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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