Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.29%
increased by 0.73%
1 Week
15.39%
increased by 0.83%
1 Month
15.74%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0139 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0545 | 3.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9287 | 88.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0164 | 0.62 |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0139 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 88.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0164 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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