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V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.62%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

23.57%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

23.38%

decreased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0136
14.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0547
12.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9292
358.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0156
2.37**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days