V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.62%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
23.57%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
23.38%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0136 | 14.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 12.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9292 | 358.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0156 | 2.37** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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