Skip to main content
V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.33%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

20.33%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

20.32%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 30% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0136
14.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
11.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9293
356.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0163
2.47**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days