Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.33%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
20.33%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
20.32%
decreased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 30% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0136 | 14.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 356.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0163 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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