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V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

19.50%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

19.52%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

19.62%

decreased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0146
5.76***
αARCH0.0631
6.82***
βGARCH0.9291
96.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-0.26

0.992

Persistence

88d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0146
5.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0631
6.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9291
96.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-0.26

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days