V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
19.50%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
19.52%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
19.62%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0146 | 5.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 6.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9291 | 96.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.26 |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0146 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 6.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9291 | 96.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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