V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.13%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
22.11%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
22.05%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0152 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 6.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9290 | 96.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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