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Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

15.73%

increased by 0.88%

1 Week

15.82%

increased by 0.97%

1 Month

16.17%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0213
5.87***
αARCH0.0635
6.82***
βGARCH0.9282
95.68***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.17

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0213
5.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0635
6.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9282
95.68***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.17

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days