Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.91%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
21.91%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
21.94%
decreased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0483 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 38.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 954.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6369 | 4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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