Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.23%
1 Week
16.30%
1 Month
16.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.9820 | 1.16 |
| αscore | 0.0588 | 9.32*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9953 | 221.08*** |
| νDF | 9.4206 | 1.00 |
0.995
Persistence147d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.9820 | 1.16 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0588 | 9.32*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 221.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4206 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
147 days
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