V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.57%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
22.57%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
22.58%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0552 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0571 | 38.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 963.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6474 | 4.70*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
Other Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs