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V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

21.91%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

21.91%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

21.94%

decreased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0483
4.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0572
38.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9957
954.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6369
4.67***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days