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Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

16.23%

increased by 1.04%

1 Week

16.30%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

16.56%

increased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 daysv = 9.42 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.9820
1.16
αscore0.0588
9.32***
βpersistence0.9953
221.08***
νDF9.4206
1.00

0.995

Persistence

147d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.9820
1.16
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0588
9.32***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9953
221.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4206
1.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

147 days