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V-Lab
V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

20.51%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

20.53%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

20.60%

decreased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~160 daysv = 8.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0423
1.12
αARCH0.0570
9.62***
βGARCH0.9957
238.88***
νDF8.6987
1.16

0.996

Persistence

160d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0423
1.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0570
9.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9957
238.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6987
1.16

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days