V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
20.51%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
20.53%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
20.60%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~160 daysv = 8.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0423 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.0570 | 9.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9957 | 238.88*** |
| νDF | 8.6987 | 1.16 |
0.996
Persistence160d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0423 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 9.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 238.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6987 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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