Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
158.25%
decreased by 11.96%
1 Week
164.01%
decreased by 6.20%
1 Month
176.56%
increased by 6.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 7.56 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 143.9983 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.1134 | 0.74 |
| βGARCH | 0.9096 | 13.94*** |
| νDF | 7.5581 | 0.20 |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 143.9983 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1134 | 0.74 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9096 | 13.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5581 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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