V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
155.67%
1 Week
150.34%
1 Month
146.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 18% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1359 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5572 | 6.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1665 | -2.92*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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