Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
128.90%
increased by 14.13%
1 Week
124.84%
increased by 10.07%
1 Month
121.93%
increased by 7.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5893 | 10.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -714.28*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.638
Half-life:
2 days
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