V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
46.32%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
43.10%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Month
33.97%
decreased by 11.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 20.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1502 | 38.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 185.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0884 | 9.02*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5024 | 7.28*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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