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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

46.32%

increased by 0.97%

1 Week

43.10%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Month

33.97%

decreased by 11.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0180
20.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1502
38.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8474
185.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0884
9.02***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5024
7.28***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days