V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
62.15%
decreased by 3.76%
1 Week
61.94%
decreased by 3.97%
1 Month
61.13%
decreased by 4.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3569 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 44.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9942 | 811.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3702 | 7.02*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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