Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
141.69%
increased by 1.60%
1 Week
146.96%
increased by 6.87%
1 Month
160.71%
increased by 20.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 6.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 134.9798 | 0.82 |
| αARCH | 0.0648 | 0.71 |
| βGARCH | 0.9421 | 11.35*** |
| νDF | 6.6878 | 0.15 |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 134.9798 | 0.82 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 0.71 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9421 | 11.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6878 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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