V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
207.13%
increased by 4.23%
1 Week
205.53%
increased by 2.63%
1 Month
201.67%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 8.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 153.2804 | 0.83 |
| αARCH | 0.0425 | 0.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.9163 | 5.16*** |
| νDF | 8.0961 | 0.04 |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 153.2804 | 0.83 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9163 | 5.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0961 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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