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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

177.57%

decreased by 3.34%

1 Week

179.25%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

183.55%

increased by 2.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

143.7399
5.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0823
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9317
43.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.9253
0.19

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days