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Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

141.69%

increased by 1.60%

1 Week

146.96%

increased by 6.87%

1 Month

160.71%

increased by 20.62%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 6.69 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst134.9798
0.82
αARCH0.0648
0.71
βGARCH0.9421
11.35***
νDF6.6878
0.15

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

134.9798
0.82
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0648
0.71
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9421
11.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6878
0.15

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days