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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

178.03%

increased by 3.66%

1 Week

179.25%

increased by 4.88%

1 Month

182.62%

increased by 8.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

141.9488
6.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0944
3.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9435
47.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

15.7213
0.20

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days