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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

207.13%

increased by 4.23%

1 Week

205.53%

increased by 2.63%

1 Month

201.67%

decreased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 8.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst153.2804
0.83
αARCH0.0425
0.39
βGARCH0.9163
5.16***
νDF8.0961
0.04

0.916

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

153.2804
0.83
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0425
0.39
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9163
5.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0961
0.04

Persistence:

0.916

Half-life:

8 days