V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.00%
increased by 1.87%
1 Week
24.80%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
24.08%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3655 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0978 | 4.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9819 | 101.45*** |
| νDF | 9.4589 | 0.71 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3655 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9819 | 101.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4589 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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