V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.36%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
23.19%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
22.58%
decreased by 2.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3398 | 7.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 17.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9806 | 377.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2909 | 2.89*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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