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Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

25.00%

increased by 1.87%

1 Week

24.80%

increased by 1.67%

1 Month

24.08%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 9.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3655
1.94*
αARCH0.0978
4.40***
βGARCH0.9819
101.45***
νDF9.4589
0.71

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3655
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0978
4.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9819
101.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4589
0.71

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days