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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.83%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

29.54%

decreased by 1.83%

1 Month

28.47%

decreased by 2.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4186
7.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0978
17.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
408.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5145
2.84***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days