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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

23.36%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

22.97%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

21.74%

decreased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1139
14.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8420
82.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7124
18.37***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days