V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
23.36%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
22.97%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
21.74%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1139 | 14.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8420 | 82.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7124 | 18.37*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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