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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

2.95%

increased by 0.86%

1 Week

2.93%

increased by 0.84%

1 Month

2.85%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.18) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0640
8.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8660
37.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1800
14.68***

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days