Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
39.56%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Week
39.04%
decreased by 3.02%
1 Month
37.22%
decreased by 4.84%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0617 | 8.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 20.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8734 | 146.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4463 | 9.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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