Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
39.82%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
39.81%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Month
39.80%
decreased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9630 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8679 | 31.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0380 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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