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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

141.94%

increased by 4.61%

1 Week

150.68%

increased by 13.35%

1 Month

167.59%

increased by 30.26%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3125
5.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1680
3.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7252
11.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4803
1.56

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days