Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
141.94%
increased by 4.61%
1 Week
150.68%
increased by 13.35%
1 Month
167.59%
increased by 30.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3125 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1680 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7252 | 11.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4803 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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