V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
151.72%
decreased by 6.30%
1 Week
150.51%
decreased by 7.51%
1 Month
150.29%
decreased by 7.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6784 | 25.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1726 | 10.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.92* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1462 | 2.56** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7437 | 6.30*** |
Persistence:
0.765
Half-life:
3 days
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