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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

151.72%

decreased by 6.30%

1 Week

150.51%

decreased by 7.51%

1 Month

150.29%

decreased by 7.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6784
25.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1726
10.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.92*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1462
2.56**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7437
6.30***

Persistence:

0.765

Half-life:

3 days