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State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

20.46%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

21.21%

increased by 0.83%

1 Month

23.14%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8494
51.28***
γleverage0.1184
7.60***
λ₁tau intercept0.0653
2.24**
λ₂forecast adj.0.1865
3.03***
λ₃tau persistence0.7901
11.39***

0.909

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8494
51.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1184
7.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0653
2.24**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1865
3.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7901
11.39***

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days