V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
22.33%
increased by 3.08%
1 Week
22.59%
increased by 3.34%
1 Month
23.24%
increased by 3.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0002 | 0.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8492 | 113.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1181 | 30.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0657 | 1.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1869 | 1.34 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7893 | 5.02*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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