V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
21.32%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.97%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
24.03%
increased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8488 | 115.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1186 | 31.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0678 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1943 | 1.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7815 | 4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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