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State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

38.62%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Week

37.31%

decreased by 3.19%

1 Month

34.00%

decreased by 6.50%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8482
50.95***
γleverage0.1194
7.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0669
2.24**
λ₂forecast adj.0.1917
3.03***
λ₃tau persistence0.7847
11.03***

0.908

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8482
50.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1194
7.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0669
2.24**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1917
3.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7847
11.03***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days