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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

21.32%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

21.97%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

24.03%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8488
115.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1186
31.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0678
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1943
1.33
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7815
4.76***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days