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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

22.33%

increased by 3.08%

1 Week

22.59%

increased by 3.34%

1 Month

23.24%

increased by 3.99%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0002
0.12
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8492
113.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1181
30.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0657
1.42
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1869
1.34
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7893
5.02***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days