V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
24.67%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
24.66%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
24.01%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8495 | 51.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.1184 | 7.60*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0666 | 2.24** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1901 | 3.03*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7859 | 11.10*** |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8495 | 51.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1184 | 7.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0666 | 2.24** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1901 | 3.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7859 | 11.10*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
Other State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs