State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.62%
1 Week
30.58%
1 Month
30.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.1440 | 2.28** |
| αscore | 0.0690 | 9.45*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9922 | 253.96*** |
| νDF | 11.8208 | 0.92 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.1440 | 2.28** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0690 | 9.45*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 253.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.8208 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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