V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
24.51%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
24.54%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
24.66%
decreased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7402 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0812 | 36.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 804.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7036 | 7.10*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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