V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
22.77%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
22.84%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
23.07%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7201 | 6.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 36.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 797.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7343 | 7.05*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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