V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
25.22%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
25.33%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
25.98%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0006 | 0.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8767 | 334.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1357 | 37.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1120 | 2.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3675 | 3.16*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5789 | 4.22*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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