V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.81%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
24.34%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
25.29%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0011 | 0.57 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8756 | 332.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1362 | 37.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1082 | 2.72*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3520 | 3.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5963 | 4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
Other iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs