V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
25.07%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
24.98%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Month
24.69%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8386 | 176.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1840 | 42.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 6.92*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0425 | 5.98*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9523 | 123.83*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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