V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.58%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
19.47%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
21.77%
increased by 2.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8385 | 177.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1845 | 42.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 6.95*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0423 | 6.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9525 | 125.61*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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