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V-Lab

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

18.58%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

19.47%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

21.77%

increased by 2.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8385
177.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1845
42.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
6.95***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0423
6.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9525
125.61***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days