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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

83.97%

decreased by 7.41%

1 Week

82.89%

decreased by 8.49%

1 Month

79.54%

decreased by 11.84%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 13, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0535
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8444
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1471
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0030
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0216
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2686

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days