Defiance Daily Target 2X Short HOOD ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
93.47%
decreased by 4.06%
1 Week
93.92%
decreased by 3.61%
1 Month
95.72%
decreased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1690 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1568 | 3.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 41.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0228 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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