V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.64%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.15%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
4.59%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4158 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5119 | 4.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4158 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
0.720
Half-life:
2 days
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