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V-Lab

First Eagle US Equity ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

13.49%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

12.81%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

12.45%

decreased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4180
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0330
1.62
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5065
3.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-267.23***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.25

Persistence:

0.526

Half-life:

1 days