V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
13.49%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
12.81%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
12.45%
decreased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4180 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | 1.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5065 | 3.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -267.23*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.526
Half-life:
1 days
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