V-Lab
Strive 500 ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
11.41%
increased by 0.64%
1 Week
11.91%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
13.43%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 16, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0465 | 9.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0808 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8915 | 97.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 6.46*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0353 | 10.83*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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