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V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

23.12%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

23.02%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

22.66%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0237
11.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
10.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9290
149.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1990
-4.05***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0472
10.01***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days