V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
1 Week
23.02%
1 Month
22.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 53% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0237 | 11.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 10.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9290 | 149.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1990 | -4.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0472 | 10.01*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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