Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
196.62%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
196.60%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
196.54%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9751 | 20.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8432 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4690 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
Other Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs