V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
215.24%
decreased by 14.92%
1 Week
244.59%
increased by 14.43%
1 Month
334.83%
increased by 104.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7344 | 3,599.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 111.28*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 1.0000 | 38.83*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7344 | 3,599.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 111.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 1.0000 | 38.83*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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