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V-Lab

Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

235.11%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

235.02%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

234.64%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 414 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.51 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9983
11.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.7050
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

2.5058
5.28***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

414 days