Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
235.11%
1 Week
235.02%
1 Month
234.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 414 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.51 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 11.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.7050 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5058 | 5.28*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
414 days
Other Leverage Shares 2X Long CIFR Daily ETF Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on ETFs