SavvyLong 2X Cameco ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
166.48%
1 Week
174.83%
1 Month
198.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 112% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2492 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7449 | 31.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3404 | -6.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0616 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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