Defiance Space and Connective Tech ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
31.07%
decreased by 4.03%
1 Week
28.94%
decreased by 6.16%
1 Month
23.78%
decreased by 11.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 48% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.89 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0732 | 19.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1995 | 32.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7678 | 117.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2184 | 16.47*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8895 | 12.06*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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