Columbia Research Enhanced Small Cap ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
34.56%
decreased by 7.35%
1 Week
39.25%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Month
41.21%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1822 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3427 | 3.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 278.32*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6290 | 5.53*** |
Persistence:
0.456
Half-life:
1 days
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