Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
9.29%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
9.01%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
8.12%
decreased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0163 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1623 | 13.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8377 | 66.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1696 | 4.03*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 7.05*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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