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V-Lab

Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

11.58%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

11.99%

increased by 0.59%

1 Month

12.39%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6620
20.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2205
8.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5155
0.09
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2184
0.11
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.772

Half-life:

3 days