V-Lab
Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.74%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
10.93%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
11.44%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6639 | 6.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.2081 | 2.11** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3931 | 0.37 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3431 | 0.36 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.768
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6639 | 6.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2081 | 2.11** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3931 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3431 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.768
Half-life:
3 days
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