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V-Lab

Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

10.74%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

10.93%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

11.44%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.6639
6.05***
γleverage0.2081
2.11**
λ₁tau intercept0.3931
0.37
λ₂forecast adj.0.3431
0.36
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.768

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6639
6.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2081
2.11**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3931
0.37
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3431
0.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.768

Half-life:

3 days